Recent changes in cropland area and productivity indicate unsustainable cropland expansion in Malawi

Abstract Cropland expansion is a common strategy for boosting agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) even though it often leads to economic, environmental, and social trade-offs. Ensuring sustainable cropland use their management critical improving food security preserving ecosystem services. To develop policies approaches that support at national sub-national scales, there need understand the spatial distribution of (/loss), any resultant changes productivity. This especially important SSA countries such as Malawi, where spatially explicit assessments area productivity are lacking. address this gap we used multi-source satellite data socio-economic data, combined with image classification trend analysis, firstly quantify productivity, secondly evaluate potentially available future expansion. We found evidence unsustainable which was demonstrated by: (a) rapid between 2010 2019 (increase 8.5% land area), characterized by an crop farming into upland areas indicate increased scarcity Malawi; (b) limited potential expansion, approximately only 5% total remained (corresponding 4671 000 ha); (c) overall reduction prevalence increase soil erosion. Our findings underscore urgent taking measures promote use, including protecting current from further degradation (e.g. Southern Malawi) planning Northern Malawi).